Website : Link To John Campbell's Products
Cost : $97
Author : John Campbell
Review Date : FebruaryMarch 2010

WHAT IT SAYS ON THE WEBSITE

This is one of three Trading systems for sale by this vendor, one of the others, Sane FX has already been reviewed by us and the review can be found here.

We chose not to review the Oil Biz as none of us has any prior experience of trading Oil and none of wished to gain exposure to this instrument.

The DOW Trader system is used to "Trade the Dow out of hours to avoid Risk & Stress" taking "Just 5 minutes a day using a place and forget strategy" with "Simple rules and a unique indicator" providing "over 60% win rate". The unique indicator provides a number, then, depending on it's value, a trading decision is derived for that day.

Dow Trader is used "during the Asian session" meaning this "unique approach is stress free" and is based on "one trade at the end of the day - after the Dow has closed". There is a 35 pip stop and a 60 pip profit target for each trade, "place and leave". Most trades "will hit the stop or the take profit almost always before the Dow opens".

With a strike rate over 60% the system gives "excellent, realistic returns averaging around 300 points a month during normal conditions".

John claims no hype, no ridiculous claims, no "price must go up soon", no pages of "testimonials" - just a simple and rather clever way of predicting the moves after the close and avoiding the madness. "Entry points are totally unambiguous with no user discretion needed - we all trade exactly the same trade once a day". The system "can be traded with most brokers and spread-bet companies".

All trading results are published every day on the website - "How many trading systems publish actual results?", not many John, we agree.

THE PURCHASE

Purchase is via Clickbank and is $97. This means the product carries the Clickbank 60 day refund.

THE MATERIAL

As per the website, you receive a 20 page manual, "the unique Dow Trend indicator (for use with Meta Trader 4 (MT4))" and a MT4 template.

The introduction explains that this system is different in that it "trades the Dow during the time when it is closed. This avoids the wild swings and makes it a lot safer proposition" as "Dow futures trade 24 hours a day, five days a week and can be traded exactly like Forex or a commodity such as Gold or Oil". The concept means you place "just one regular trade a day, place and forget (in the case of Europeans, place and go to bed)". A brief background on futures is provided, those willing to know more can obviously seek it out but this background should suffice for the not so curious.

There are a couple of pages about brokers (including Spread-bet companies), such as which ones support Dow futures and some of the pro's and con's associated. The Installation and Set-up section is brief as it is quite simple and straight forward, especially for those with a just a little previous knowledge of MT4.

The system theory is quite well explained, it basically involves taking a reading of the Dow Trend indicator around 21:15 UK Local time, the period when the DOW futures market is officially closed. Based on the indicator reading a trading decision is made. The "decision" values are provided in the manual but as they change on occasion depending on market conditions, the website should always be checked for the current parameters.

A trade is then placed just before the "close" window opens, John prefers 21:14 whilst the official time for placing is 21:30 (UK Local times). An example is provided on how to place a trade on the MT4 platform, including the Stop and Target. Once that's done, it's Set & Forget, until 14:00 UK Local time.

If the trade has not closed out by 14:00, which is quite rare, some trade management is required, in terms of protecting potential gains. Additionally, if the trade is still open and there is key economic news due out before 14:00 and one is around, similar trade management techniques should be applied. There is also a recommendation to, if around, lock in profits when certain targets are hit to protect gains.

There are some discretionary "bending the rules" aspects too, most of which make sense as they take into account recent Support & Resistance. There is also a strategy to compensate for 2 losing trades in a row which involves doubling contract size until there are then 2 winning trades. This is considered a "small risk of a greater loss - given the high success rate of the system".

The 5 Minute Chart Trading section provides the opportunity of continuous trading between 11:30 & 13:00 GMT. As it points out in the manual, "this is time consuming", and for this reason we didn't investigate this in any more detail. The main reason, as most people now know, is that we do not believe trading has to be and therefore should not be a time consuming profession.

The remaining sections are well put together and cover Money Management, a Summary and a final section on Contract Changes.

THE SYSTEM IN THEORY

Set-up is quick and easy, one indicator and one template in the correct directory, reload MT4, pull up a DOW futures chart on the 30 minute timeframe, job done. Then, each day around 21:15 UK Local time read the indicator, check the parameters and place your trade with the appropriate Stop loss and Target. Set and Forget!

Of course when applying the above, it is important to always check the website for current parameters as well as the chart for recent Support and Resistance levels to make sure trade direction is correct and that Stops and Targets are within "safe" boundaries.

THE SYSTEM IN PRACTICE

We traded this system during February and March 2010 as per the manual on a Set & Forget basis. It meant we went for a Stop loss of 35 and a Target of 60 but adjusted these to take into account recent Support and Resistance. We also moved our Stop according to the trade management rules as and when we were around, the next day.

This approach meant that more often than not we did not use the standard Stop loss and Target as we had to adjust them based on our interpretations of recent Support and Resistance. This was often backed up/assisted by the commentary provided by John in the members area, which was updated most days. On occasion the commentary was not conclusive and it meant we still relied on our own discretion and went with our own interpretation.

Actual trading, in the evening, takes a matter of minutes at 21:14 UK Local time. The manual states "Wait to open the trade until the start of the 21:30 (UK Local time) candle or place the trade at 21:14", we went with the latter. This was changed towards the end of February to always be 21:30 UK Local time. We changed our process to account for this.

The following day if the trade is still open some trade management is required depending on current profit levels and upcoming news. Quite often we found ourselves having to perform some form of trade management the next day, usually in the morning and then again, quite rarely though, in the afternoon. Although minimal, it still had to be done.

Unfortunately for us, February was one of the worst, if not the worst month ever for this system and March was not much better.

We had 5 profitable trades in February with 2 breakeven and 10 losing giving a net loss of 130 points. In March we saw an improvement with 9 profitable trades and 8 losing ones giving a net profit of 71 points.

Based on an average Stop loss of 35 points and 2% risk per trade this equates to (roughly) a net loss of 8% in February and a net profit of 4% in March, a loss of 4% over the 2 month period.

Note: It does recommend in the manual to double stakes after two losses - We did NOT apply this in practise and in hindsight we are glad after having a run of 5 losses.

CAN IT WORK

We were quite hopeful of this system, mainly because of the timing, the effort and the headline "Just 5 minutes a day using a place and forget strategy, simple rules, unique indicator, over 60% win rate".

We found the system required a little bit more discretion, more often than not, than we prefer. We didn't hit the 60% win rate or the 300 points per month average performance. We also had a bit of a feeling of the need to follow the vendors narrative each and every too, not something we are overly keen on.

Granted, we probably experienced the worst two months for this system and it may prove to be consistently profitable again.

Experienced traders seeking an evening strategy may find this system of interest as long as they can commit to some minor trade management the next day too.

SUPPORT

Almost always immediate and always with 24 hours. Additionally, trading comments and results are published on the website on a Daily basis.

CONCLUSION

PRO's
- Good timing (for us) and minimal effort.
- Good support.
CON's
- Not true set & forget, requires some (minor) trade management more often than not. Our classification of "Set Time", e.g. Once a day/End of day trading, is loosely applied here.
- Performance wise, our timing was (February and March) not good.
- Would prefer less discretion without feeling the need that we have to follow the vendors trade narrative each day.


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ReviewTeam - www.systemsfortraders.com