Thread: Review - Forex Avenger (Intra)

FOREX AVENGER (Intra)

WHAT IT SAYS ON THE WEBSITE

Website : Forex Avenger Website
Cost : $97
Author : Dave Curran
Review Date : August/September/October 2009

Dave, ?never worked in a bank? or ?in a fancy brokerage? and ?barely finished school?. But, he is a ?Self-made Forex genius? who ?tells all? about his ?3 step mechanism to trade the Forex market ? Industry labels his astonishing discovery: The Next Big Thing?, designed to ?pull cash from the Forex market like an ATM machine on crack!?.

The system claims ?82.69% accuracy?, ?withstands absolutely any market conditions?, is ?100% mechanical which takes out any human intervention, judgement or thinking? and ?continuously banks 10 or more consecutive winners?. It is ?so easy to implement, so quick to learn that it will take you no more than 23 minutes ? to start bagging $100, $200, $500, $1000 trades as accurately as a Swiss watch?.

There are 6 ?Master Secrets? on the website, about the same number of testimonials (email/video), the promise of access to 22 videos (which promise to ?reveal an ?unfair? trading secret that will put you in the top 1% of traders?) and 3 bonuses. And, you also get the system in eBook (pdf) format.

The 6 ?Master Secrets? are as follows (we just wanted to write them down to see what they looked like, of course, feel free to read the detail on the website for yourself):

? ?Don?t think like a fisherman ? Think like a fish?
? ?Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler?
? ?Always trade with the trend?
? ?You can?t fire a gun with no bullets and you can?t trade an account with no money?
? ?You have to be disciplined enough not to get carried away when you are successful and not become suicidal when you lose?
? ?Think like a hunter?

The ?core? system is based on EUR/USD and the 1 hour time-frame where you ?Place a trade, switch off your computer? and ?collect the cash?. It is ?so good ? so powerful and so easy to implement that even a child could use it? and you ?don?t have to be a ?monitor your screen? slave?.

After being challenged by a Forex guru, Dave ?made 12 trades with 9 winners for a win rate of 75%? with a ?26.18% profit for the month ($2,513.90)?. This is backed up with an image of the live account used as well as a letter of verification (from the publisher of the web-site publishing Forex Avenger ? strange verification !).

As well as the ?core? system (we will refer to this as Forex Avenger from now) there is a second system included, ?The Set ?N Sleep System?. It ?takes about 10 minutes to set up?, ?you can trade this with a full-time job?, there is ?no need to watch the screen?, ?it?s totally mechanical? and also ?simple to learn?. In fact, ?the rules are incredibly simple and you will be able to win trade after trade like a sniper picking off his targets?.

THE PURCHASE

Clickbank, $97, with the usual 60 day money back guarantee.

THE MATERIAL

An 87 pager, however, if you have any experience at all of Forex and trading you can fast forward to page 51 like we did.

The method is based on 4 indicators, 2 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA?s), Williams %R and Stochastic. A little back-ground is provided for each indicator as are the settings. Chart set-up is manual but is straight forward and takes no more than a couple of minutes.

The system rules are explained in the rest of the manual which includes links to 14 different videos showing Set-up, examples, etc. It leaves one pretty clear that the system is 100% mechanical and what the Entry, Stop and Exit rules are. Of note is that the Stop is a maximum 50 pips with a Target of 30.

Five pages are devoted to ?Advanced Tactics?. The main difference being that the target is increased from 30 to 150 pips. We decided to stick to the ?standard? method of trading (30 pip target) just for the sake of our review and to keep things simple.

Note: the last 10 pages or so of the manual are dedicated to the ?Set ?N Sleep? system. We were originally interested in this system for the ?core? system (Forex Avenger). Based on this and the fact that the Set ?N Sleep system is based on Daily charts (and thus we are not around for Daily candle close) we didn?t look into this in any more detail.

Money management of between 1% - 3% is discussed, we stuck with our, all too familiar by now, 2% of account size per trade.

THE SYSTEM IN THEORY

Set up is easy, takes about 2 minutes on most platforms.

Trading is based on just one Currency pair (EUR/USD) on the 1 hour time-frame. Entry is, as stated, very clear and is 100% mechanical based on the 4 indicators. Stops are 50 pips or Above/Below the most recent High/Low (whichever is the smaller) and the Target is a fixed 30 pips from Entry.

Note: It is worth stating at this point that, in our opinion, this is quite a high risk/reward ratio for any trading system (the risk is 50 (pips) and the reward is 30). It means winning trades must out-weigh losing trades by at least 63:37, a 63% strike rate, just to break-even.

THE SYSTEM IN PRACTICE

We ran the system on the EUR/USD 1 hour time-frame. We operated the system between the hours of 06:00 and 22:00 (UK local time) as best possible when we were around. This tied in with our Forex Sniper trading where we already trade GBP/USD on the 1 hour time-frame for the same period.

As recommended we back-tested the system (over 2 months) and we then traded it on a small account in real-time through-out October.

The back-test results (August ? September) were as follows:

? 21 trades, 15 winners and 6 losers, longest winning streak was 3 in a row
? Profit of 236 pips, biggest drawdown -50
? Average Stop loss of 40 pips and an average profit of, obviously, 30 pips, per trade

So, with a 2% risk per trade (assuming an average stop loss of 40 pips) this would have returned around 12% over the period or, around 6% per month.

The system, although traded over quite a long period, 16 hours each day, was not a huge burden and involved little screen time at all. One has to check every hour for a signal, but in reality you know from the previous check whether you have to check in the next hour or not. For example, you only need to check at 09:00 if at 08:00 xyz has happened, else you can come back at 10:00 - hope that makes sense.

So, as mentioned previously we ran the system alongside Sniper Forex but unlike Sniper this system does not alert you to potential trades (that would have been a huge bonus ? perhaps someone can write one for Meta Trader (we guess that may not be legal)). We wrote our own for IG Index charts, it was quite a simple process so most with limited programming experience should be able to so as well (please don?t ask as we cannot provide it).

Entries are clear, Stops are clear and so is Exit, this is probably the most mechanical system we have come across, especially, as no attention is given to imminent news. In terms of the Stop rule, above/below the previous High/Low or 50 pips whichever is the smallest, we added one more rule of our own. If the High/Low was less than 30 we rounded it up to 30 to make the trade an even 1:1 risk/reward.

In real-time (October) our results were:

? 9 trades, 7 winners and 2 losers, longest winning streak was 4 in a row
? Profit of 112 pips, biggest drawdown -37
? Average Stop loss of 40 pips and an average profit of, obviously, 30 pips, per trade

So, with a 2% risk per trade (assuming an average stop loss of 40 pips) this was a return of just over 5% for the month, average on back-test was 6% per month.

So, we didn?t hit the 82.69% accuracy but came close, at (circa) 73% based on 30 trades and 22 winners. We also didn?t get more than 4 winners in a row meaning the system doesn?t quite warrant the claim ?continuously banks 10 or more consecutive winners?.
However, over a 3 month period of back-testing and live running we were able to beat the 63% win rate required to hit break-even and also made an average profit of just over 5% per month, so a decent performance all in all.

CAN IT WORK

It seems so, although of course we have only looked at 2 months worth of data and traded live for one month. We liked the system though, it?s relaxed, trades are almost Set & Forget and it fits in with our Sniper trading.

We were close to adding this to our ?Systems We Use? list but just want to run the system in a live environment until the end of the year. We are still a bit wary of the required 63% hit rate (although in reality this is slightly lower as our average Stop loss has been around 40 pips, not 50). As it takes us little time to run the system we have no issues with running it for another couple of months (on a small account) before making our decision.

We will of course provide updates as we progress.

SUPPORT

We actually had no reason to contact support so cannot comment.

CONCLUSION

PRO's
? Good steady performance.
? Relaxed and about as 100% mechanical as we have ever seen.
? Minimal screen time.
CON's
? Time commitment, traded over a long period of time (but that?s our choice really ? we trade this system between 06:00 and 22:00 (UK local time) where possible).
? Trades can be quite infrequent, occasionally, a few days, so may not suit some who prefer to be more active.
? Would be nice to have an audible/email alert function (as above though, it?s not very difficult to write your own).
? That risk/reward balance (and the high strike rate required) ? just a (maybe unnecessary) worry on our part.

As mentioned above, we will continue to monitor this system and around the end of the year will make a decision as to whether we will continue to trade it or not. In the meantime we hope to hear from others trading this system.

Do remember, your comments are important, if you decide to purchase this system, please support us by using our link and by reporting back your findings, both are valuable to us and the service.


ReviewTeam - www.systemsfortraders.com