Website : Forex Trade Alert Website
Publisher : Tom Tragett
Cost : £497 a year by Direct Debit with a 90 Day Money Back Guarantee
Review Date : April 2010 – March 2011

WHAT IT SAYS ON THE WEBSITE

“No guides. No manuals. No DVDs. No learning. No skill needed.” – “All you need to do is get up, have breakfast, and switch on your mobile at 8:00am”.

Hats off to the introduction to this service, not the above quotes, but the reference to flying a plane having been given the “big fat ‘how to fly a plane’ guidebook”. The analogy to having all the tools at your disposal to trade the Forex markets is made. Although it can be considered marketing copy writing some will find some truth in the reference. You can read it should you wish by clicking the link at the end of our review.

Tom states that he came out of retirement “to show you the smart, easy way you could profit from Forex – And to make you a truly unique offer”. He worked in the city for 31 years “slaving away on the Forex markets to make millions for rich clients” and “was paid handsomely to do it”. He believes he can “make you a 40% to 50% gain from the Forex markets over the next twelve months”.

To use the Forex Trade Alert service all you have to do is keep your mobile switched on between 08:00 and 20:00 Monday to Friday and wait for the signals. Each signal will tell you the exact trade to place, then you simply “sit back and see how it pans out”. For each signal a follow up email details the reasons “why we’re trading” that trade. Estimated time to place and close each trade is 10 minutes. Trades will typically run for 2 – 7 days.

Some other points are noted:

- Tom stresses that the strategy is not foolproof, there will be losses
- The service will not make you a millionaire, 10% - 15% gains per trade is the aim whilst accepting small losses
- You’ll need £2,000 to start off with - Risking a maximum 5% per trade this is about the minimum amount of capital required to make trading the service worth your while
- If you are looking at daydream returns of 500% - 1000% a year this is not for you

We welcome these level headed and sensible points as we agree with all of them.

In addition to the signals, each day, Monday to Friday, Tom will provide his “daily briefings and markets notes”. They contain his “lowdown on what’s going on in the world of Forex... what the international banks are up to... what governments are planning... how the whole economic outlook is shaping up”. Tom has “been told that his daily briefings alone are worth being a member for”.

Finally, a copy of the “Secrets Of The Currency Market” report is included, this is yours to keep regardless of if or when you cancel your subscription.

This service comes with, we think, the most generous Money Back Guarantee we have ever seen, 90 days. It is backed by Agora.

THE SERVICE

Signals are received by SMS and they are clear and easy to place. They can be received at any time of the day (08:00 – 20:00) although they are seldom received outside of “normal office hours”. We would say 10 minutes to place the order is an exaggeration, anyone with any trading experience at all should be able to place their order within a minute or so, even on a mobile device. Whilst some entry levels are close to the current market price Tom always sends instructions to use a limit order to catch the entry on a retracement, where this is the case.

Example Signal:

Forex Trade Alert Trade Example.jpg

Follow up emails (to signals) are useful and informative, providing detail on why each particular order has been placed.

When a trade is heading in the right direction trade management is performed via SMS and followed up with an email update. Again, this can all be done quite quickly and easily via most mobile devices these days.

The Daily Briefings, as they are called, are received each morning, typically before 10:00 UK Time. They provide technical information on many of the key Forex trading pairs and identify forthcoming news events which may affect each pair. Tom combines the two to provide his analysis and expectations of these markets. Mostly, this information is generally available on the internet (perhaps not in a consolidated place) with the exception of, of course, Tom’s analysis and expectations.

The “Secrets Of The Currency Market” report is a short (32 page) and basic guide to the functioning of the Forex market and the concepts behind Spread betting, Risk management and Position sizing. It provides a good beginners overview but it is not essential to the usage of the Signal service.

CAN IT WORK

We have had access to this service since the beginning of 2010. At the end of March 2010, Tom reported a 46% gain since inception (April 2009). We did not have access for that complete period so we have based our review on the last 12 months (April 2010 – March 2011 inclusive) instead.

Our results are as follows:

April 2010 - 1 trade, +5%
May 2010 - 3 trades, -16%
June 2010 - 4 trades, -1%
July 2010 - 3 trades, -12%
August 2010 - 2 trades, +20%
September 2010 - 5 trades, +11%
October 2010 - 2 trades, -2%
November 2010 - 3 trades, -5%
December 2010 - No trades
January 2011 - 3 trades, -4%
February 2011 - 4 trades, +7%
March 2011 - 2 trades, +7% (Note – 1 trade is still open – this assumes the in profit Stop on 50% of the position is hit)

The above is our monthly percentage return based on placing the recommended stake and risk advised in the signals based on our current account balance.

This translates to a net gain at the end of the 12 month period of +6% with a maximum drawdown of -24%. Over 2 years, this is, of course, an average gain of 26% per annum (46% + 6% / 2).

All in all this is a service which has not performed as well as expected (e.g. the advertised 50% per annum) but nonetheless one which may be of interest. On the basis you:

• Want to place trades based on a service which is aimed at returning 50% per annum
• You want a detailed explanation as to why you have placed those trades
• You want a consolidated technical and fundamental Forex report each morning
• You want another analysts opinion of the markets based on that data

Comfort may also be taken from the associated 90 day Money Back Guarantee backed by Agora.

SUPPORT

We contacted support on a few occasions – Tom’s responses to trade related questions were always prompt and courteous, and Agora’s response to service issues (e.g. change of mobile number) were above par too.

CONCLUSION

PROs
• 100% mechanical, just follow the SMS alerts.
• Simple to operate, even from most mobile devices.
• Detailed trade updates.
• Consolidated Technical and Fundamental Daily briefings including Tom’s analysis and expectations.
• 90 Day Money Back Guarantee.
CONs

• Performance really needs to be nearer that advertised 50% per annum target.
• Expensive (for some), starting at £497 a year.
• Price rises by 30% - 40% in the second year depending on subscription method.


Do remember, your comments are important, if you decide to purchase this service, please support us by using our link and by reporting back your findings, both are valuable to us and the service.

Important:
Spread betting is not suitable for everyone - ensure you fully understand the risks involved and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Trades recommended in Forex Trade Alert carry a high level of risk to your capital. Prices can move rapidly against you and resulting losses may be more than your original stake or deposit. Margin amounts vary between spread betting companies and the type of markets spread bet. Always seek personal advice if you are unsure about the suitability of any investment.

Forex Trade Alert is issued by Fleet Street Publications Ltd. Registered office 7th Floor, Sea Containers House, Upper Ground, London SE1 9JD. Customer services: 020 7633 3600. Registered in England and Wales No 1937374. VAT No GB629 7287 94. FSA No 115234. FSA Register Fleet Street Publications is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

© 2011 Fleet Street Publications Ltd.

Good review Reviewteam - I've been using Tom's signals since 2009 and it was the first Agora product I ever bought. I had great performance back then, but as I was a bit green I shifted it to minimum stakes the minute it hit a few losers and haven't put it back on the 'first team' since. It's eye-opening to see the results had I stuck to it, and it underlines the importance of risk management in any system.
Also, I had never realised this was FSA regulated - a rarity in the shady world of forex systems I suspect. Does anyone know how it works for we the consumers?

Z

Hi Zorba

It's relatively simple - Anyone offering tips to be used for spread betting or forex needs to be authorised to do so by the financial services authority. If the person is outside the UK but marketing into the UK they need to be authorised. You can couch the info as just 'information' or 'education', but the FSA will take a hard line on it push comes to shove. The FSA probably don't look into small two bit websites because it's not worth their time to do so.

Re the results I have results from April 2009 to 11th of June 2009. They show a total return best on advised risk of 20% based on a starting account of £10,000. Things were going well until Jan 10 then the sovereign crisis hit and FTA got whacked.

Historically, the best commercial forex hedge funds make around 9-10% PA, so Tom isn't doing too bad in comparison to this benchmark. The trouble is, those sort of returns won't entice too many people, which is telling in itself.

Hope this helps.

Dave

Dave - thanks very much for that, very useful indeed! So basically anyone taking money for tips should be FSA registered?

Good to see Tom's results are more or less steady that far back. Hands up, I hardly knew what I was doing at the time; no 2% risk for me. Lucky to still be here! Your point on the hedge funds is quite good - I don't see why they are automatically afforded greater legitimacy than a service like Tom's. Given his experience and his approach to risk, do you think it's fair to consider them in the same league?

I've said it before on here - signals are only as good as the person giving them. Hopefully Tom will stay good.

Anyway thanks for a very informative first post!

Z

Hi Z

If Tom was trading with the pressure of millions of pounds on his back and produced an average return of 9% over more than 5 years then I'd put him in that category. At present the bet turnover is still such that a handful of losing trades could put the annual return back to cash ISA levels.

But also yes, anyone giving out tips needs to be authorised to do so by the FSA. Forex is a grey area in general, but I'm told by my contacts at the FSA that advice is advice.

I believe that they are allowed to alert you to the trades that they are taking, and if you want take the same trades that's up to you, but not allowed to recommend trades without FSA authorisation. So sayeth Mr 'e-yield'.

I've not had any experience of this, and don't intend to.
There do not seem to be many signals and rather expensive considering the results.
As the signals indicate a risk as % of capital, then there is also compounding to be taken into account as simply adding up the % return each month for the year will not be a true reflection of the performance.
Not having the trade by trade results, I have used the RT results and compounded on a monthly basis. This doesn't result in a gain of 6%, but a loss of about 0.7 %. A bigger loss when you take into account the subscription cost.
Obviously trade by trade compounding would be slightly different.

Muddy, isn't it? Don't want to get them too interested though in case they remember spreadbetting is tax free!

Our results do actually include compounding "All of our results are based on placing the recommended stake and risk advised in the signals" in this instance.

This is we had a balance of £10,000 and won £1,000, if the next trade stated risk 10% of account we risked £1,100.

Sorry team. I thought that as the monthly % gains and losses added up to the 6% that you hadn't compounded.
So you have reported each months result as % loss or gain compared to the original bank, not as a % of the bank at the end of the previous month.